Its constitutional status is equal to each of the other 85 federal subjects. The port of Baltiyskin the oblast, is the only Baltic port in the Russian Federation that remains ice-free in winter. The oblast is bordered by Poland to the south, Lithuania to the north and east, and the Baltic Sea to the west. It is impossible to travel overland between the oblast and Russia without passing through at least two other countries. The territory was formerly the northern part of the Prussian province of East Prussiathe southern part of which is today part of the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship in Poland.
Following the post-war migration and flight and expulsion of Germansthe territory was populated with citizens from the Soviet Union. As of the census, only a small number of ethnic Germans remain;  most of the several thousand who live in the oblast are recent immigrants from other parts of the former Soviet Union.
Early in the 21st century, the economy of Kaliningrad Oblast became one of the best performing economies in Russia. This was helped by a low manufacturing tax rate related to the Yantar "Special Economic Zone" SEZwhich is located inside the oblast. As of [update]one in three television sets manufactured in Russia came from Kaliningrad.
The territory's population was one of the few in Russia that was expected to show strong growth after the collapse of the USSR. During the Middle Agesthe territory of what is now the Kaliningrad Oblast was inhabited by tribes of Old Prussians Sambians in the western part and by Lithuanians in the eastern part. The Teutonic Knights conquered the region and established a monastic state. Germans resettled the territory and assimilated the indigenous Old Prussians. The Lithuanian -inhabited areas became known as Lithuania Minor.
The old Baltic languages became extinct around the 17th century, their speakers having been assimilated and Germanised. The duchy was nominally a fief of the Polish crown. It later merged with the Margraviate of Brandenburg.
As the centre of Prussia moved westward, the position of the capital became too peripheral and Berlin became the new Prussian capital city.
The territory of the Kaliningrad Oblast lies in the northern part of East Prussia. Inshortly before its merger with West Prussiathe population of East Prussia was 1, people. East Prussia was an important centre of German culture.
Many important figures, such as Immanuel Kant and E. Hoffmanncame from this region. Despite being heavily damaged during World War II and thereafter, the cities of the oblast still contain examples of German architecture.Fritto pesce farina
The Jugendstil style showcases the rich German history and cultural importance of the area. By the early 20th century, Lithuanians formed a majority only in rural parts of the north-eastern corner of East Prussia Memelland and Lithuania Minor.
The rest of the area, with the exception of the Polish Masurians in Mazury southern Prussiawas overwhelmingly German-speaking. InNazi Germany radically renamed about a third of the place names of this area, replacing Old Prussian and Lithuanian names with newly invented German names.
Historical Lithuania Minor comprises a sizeable part of Prussian region that is now the Kaliningrad Oblast.
The Latvian-speaking Kursenieki spit in The East Prussian resort town of Cranz Zelenogradsk today as it looked ca.Located at the confluence of the Instruch and Angrapa rivers, which unite to become the Pregolya River below Chernyakhovsk, the town had a population in of 36, Chernyakhovsk was founded in by the Teutonic Knights on the site of a former Old Prussian fortification when Dietrich von Altenburgthe Grand Master of the Teutonic Knights, built a castle called Insterburg following the Prussian Crusade.
The castle had been rebuilt as the seat of a Procurator and a settlement also named Insterburg grew up to serve it. Michael Andreas Barclay de Tolly died at Insterburg in on his way from his Livonian manor to Germany, where he wanted to renew his health. Ina Polish secret organization was founded and operated in Insterburg, which was involved in arms trafficking to the Russian Partition of Poland during the January Uprising.
The Weimar Germany era after World War I saw the town separated from the rest of the country as the province of East Prussia had become an exclave. The association football club Yorck Boyen Insterburg was formed in As part of the northern part of East Prussia, Insterburg was transferred from Germany to the Soviet Union after the war as previously agreed between the victorious powers at the Potsdam Conference. The German population was either evacuated or expelled and replaced with Russians.
Aftera group of people introduced the Akhal-Teke horse breed to the area and opened an Akhal-Teke breeding stable. Within the framework of administrative divisionsChernyakhovsk serves as the administrative center of Chernyakhovsky District. Chernyakhovsk is home to the Chernyakhovsk naval air facility. On September the local court ruled  that the coat of arms was illegal because it carries "elements of foreign culture.
The town's coat of arms, adopted inwas based on the historic coat of arms of the town that before was known under its original Prussian name - Insterburg. The full version of coat of arms in question has a picture of a Prussian man with a horn and the Latin initials G. The case brought before the court follows a trend among several towns in the region that have announced their intentions to change their coat of arms as tensions mount between Russia and the West following Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea in and its support for pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine 's east.
Chernyakhovsk is twinned with:. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Town in Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia.
Town . Coat of arms. Location of Chernyakhovsk. Administrative status. Municipal status. See also: List of twin towns and sister cities in Russia.
Federal State Statistics Service. Retrieved January 23, June 3, Retrieved January 19, Russian Post. Ortsnamenverzeichnis der Ortschaften jenseits von Oder u.A statistical error is the amount by which an observation differs from its expected value, a residual is the amount an observation differs from the value the estimator of the expected value assumes on a given sample (also called prediction).
Mean squared error is used for obtaining efficient estimators, a widely used class of estimators. Root mean square error is simply the square root of mean squared error.
Many statistical methods seek to minimize the residual sum of squares, and these are called "methods of least squares" in contrast to Least absolute deviations.
The latter gives equal weight to small and big errors, while the former gives more weight to large errors. Residual sum of squares is also differentiable, which provides a handy property for doing regression. Least squares applied to linear regression is called ordinary least squares method and least squares applied to nonlinear regression is called non-linear least squares. Also in a linear regression model the non deterministic part of the model is called error term, disturbance or more simply noise.
Measurement processes that generate statistical data are also subject to error. Any estimates obtained from the sample only approximate the population value. Confidence intervals allow statisticians to express how closely the sample estimate matches the true value in the whole population.
From the frequentist perspective, such a claim does not even make sense, as the true value is not a random variable. Either the true value is or is not within the given interval.Eas alert maker online
One approach that does yield an interval that can be interpreted as having a given probability of containing the true value is to use a credible interval from Bayesian statistics: this approach depends on a different way of interpreting what is meant by "probability", that is as a Bayesian probability.
In principle confidence intervals can be symmetrical or asymmetrical.Hisse forum aselsan
An interval can be asymmetrical because it works as lower or upper bound for a parameter (left-sided interval or right sided interval), but it can also be asymmetrical because the two sided interval is built violating symmetry around the estimate. Sometimes the bounds for a confidence interval are reached asymptotically and these are used to approximate the true bounds.75b bra size conversion
Interpretation often comes down to the level of statistical significance applied to the numbers and often refers to the probability of a value accurately rejecting the null hypothesis (sometimes referred to as the p-value). A critical region is the set of values of the estimator that leads to refuting the null hypothesis. The probability of type I error is therefore the probability that the estimator belongs to the critical region given that null hypothesis is true (statistical significance) and the probability of type II error is the probability that the estimator doesn't belong to the critical region given that the alternative hypothesis is true.
The statistical power of a test is the probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false.
Referring to statistical significance does not necessarily mean that the overall result is significant in real world terms. For example, in a large study of a drug it may be shown that the drug has a statistically significant but very small beneficial effect, such that the drug is unlikely to help the patient noticeably.
While in principle the acceptable level of statistical significance may be subject to debate, the p-value is the smallest significance level that allows the test to reject the null hypothesis.
This is logically equivalent to saying that the p-value is the probability, assuming the null hypothesis is true, of observing a result at least as extreme as the test statistic. Therefore, the smaller the p-value, the lower the probability of committing type I error.
Some problems are usually associated with this framework (See criticism of hypothesis testing):Some well-known statistical tests and procedures are:Misuse of statistics can produce subtle, but serious errors in description and interpretationsubtle in the sense that even experienced professionals make such errors, and serious in the sense that they can lead to devastating decision errors.This offer is valid for 5 minutes Get it now.
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How does the provider get rated. Only businesses who use the specially developed eKomi software to collect real feedback can obtain the eKomi Seal of Approval. Didn't have any connection problems that a simple reboot couldn't solve.
Battery life was only about 4-6 hours, but I already carry an external charger so recharging on the go wasn't an issue. However, if you don't have one I'd strongly recommend renting the external battery unit from the company along with your hotspot.
Local pickup in Paris and return shipping from the train station was a breeze. My only complaint is that the data usage counter on the hotspot itself seemed to reset at some point. We were nowhere close to going over the data limit, but I was just curious how much we had used - and couldn't really tell. However my last rental was often times frustrating. Despite this I would consider renting from them again depending on the country I was traveling.
In France the service was definitely amazing. Overall the unit worked well and we were happy with it. My only complaint is that there was an issue our first day using it - the SIM wasn't registering on the network and I had to call Hippo for resolution which was an added expense given that I got the unit to save on these types of network charges.
At the very least there should be a toll free number available for tech support. I'll use Hippo again for future travels to Europe. Overall the network connectivity was good. However I payed for the unlimited data plan and it ran out about half way through our trip. I tried to use the secondary card that came with the device but it wouldn't connect to any networks.
It was a bit frustrating and a lot less convenient without it.We have to fix tons of these in the spring mostly because people leave their outside hoses connected and they freeze up. Look for a company that warranties its service for up to a year for major installations or repairs. Here are more tips to save on every household bill. Same goes for checking your water pressure. We said fine, but she ended up not returning until four hours later.
We tried holding her. She just kept crying. There is no national standard for issuing licenses. Some plumbers are licensed by the state, others by the counties they work in.
Check with your local city hall or chamber of commerce. They should be able to direct you to the appropriate source for a list of licensed plumbers in your area. They come and go. Instead, look for a plumber who is well-established in your community. Check the Better Business Bureau and read customer reviews at sites such as HomeAdvisor, Angie's List, or Citysearch. Local contractors or plumbing fixture stores can also refer you to a quality plumber, according to Grady Daniel, who owns a plumbing company in Austin, Texas.
A trusted plumber that consistently delivers quality service does not remain a secret for very long. Estimates for an average-sized job should be within a few hundred dollars. Be suspicious of anything that is substantially lower or double the price of the rest, and watch out for hidden fees, like charges for travel expenses. They could be signs of a home improvement scam. A good plumber will not nickel and dime you like this, and many of us will offer free estimates.
Get a clueand an electrician. By staying smart and doing these things all smart homeowners do once a year, you won't need to call me as often.
We may be tiny buggers (about the shape and size of an apple seed), but our presence elicits a massive case of the heebie jeebies.Boekhouden voor dummies pdf
Home fires can happen quickly, devastating lives and property, but unlike other disasters, most home fires can be prevented. Read on to learn 10 unexpected home fire hazards. By Tara Conry 1. More: Home Improvement Saving Money Family Life Life Tips Become more interesting every week.
Removing Wallpaper: 6 Smart Tips to the Job Right So you want to remove wallpaper. Saving Money 12 Surprising Costs Every First-Time Home Buyer Needs to Know About While there should be no hidden fees in the home-buying process (because that would be illegal), make sure you budget for these surprising costs before making the offer and signing on the dotted line.
How to Quickly Get Ice Cubes Out of a TrayEvery Single Time Chill out. Travel The Most Expensive House in the World Is for Sale This place is ginormous.
The good news is that most home noises are easy to eliminate without spending hours on repairs or a ton of money. Here is a collection of fixes for the most annoying squeaks, creaks, gurgles and bangs. Decorating 21 Cheap DIY Halloween Decorations for the Spookiest Holiday Ever From spooky to chic, these cheap, homemade Halloween decorations make it easy to trick out your house for the holiday.There are parties to plan, meals to cook, planes to catch.
If you happen to have the greatand, in some ways, hectichonor of being the holiday host, there are some thoughtful things you can do to lighten your load while ensuring that your fete is warm, merry, and memorable.
The first list has all of the items I can buy 3 weeks beforehand, which are my pantry items, staples, and anything else that won't perish. Shop early, shop quality: One of the keys to truly memorable food is high-quality ingredients. So skip the last-minute scramble at the supermarket and shop throughout the week at farmers markets and local specialty shops, recommends Neubauer.
This eliminates waste and provides a fragrant, beautiful setting.كيف ترسل الاموال إلى أهلك عن طريق Money gram
The Tuesday before, I make my side dishes that can be reheated the day of. I also take out anything out of the freezer that will need to thaw out. The day before is when I suggest baking your pies, many of which can be left at room temperature when they are done. I also prep my salad and vegetables, so that on Thanksgiving Day I can just assemble everything. I set my table and get the house ready the day before while my pies are baking. Prepping everything so far in advance allows you to fully focus on the main dishturkey.
While you roast the turkey, you can start reheating your side dishes and make sure everything is in order. Tags: holidays, thanksgiving, planningWell played. You deserve a cookie. The book is a cross between a meditation on the meaning of the day with lovely how-to hints. I make a time schedule list for the day of. Have bought all the dry, canned, butter, baking necessities already.
Turkey and potatoes will be purchased the Monday before Thanksgiving. Knowing I have everything purchased is a big stress relief. I might suggest that you not make "a list" but lots of them. I have a busy law practice negotiating transactions, with end of year deals pressing in hard starting in early November. That means that I cannot count on having more than a couple of hours at most on each of the evenings leading up to Thanksgiving. Good lists -- ones that reflect careful planning -- ensure success like nothing else.
As noted in the recipe linked above, "Whatever you would do, begin it. Boldness has courage, genius and magic in it. Create a Food52 account to save your favorite recipes, features, and Shop finds.
Join the partythere'll be cake.Place a pre-match accumulator with bet365 of 3 or more selections combining teams in any of the above competitions, and if successful the relevant bonus will be added to your returns. NORTH AMERICA: This site may not be used by visitors from North America. By choosing to bet with an affiliate, you take sole responsibility to ensure that betting is legal in your jurisdiction.
We do not take responsibility for the content of any third party links on this site. Betting tips, guide and advice online can be found at ukbettips. Bet on sports, soccer and horse racing with the free betting tips, join our community and win. Learn betting strategy with news and free betting tips. These betting tips are based only on our own knowledge and detailed analysis. Our proposed betting tips are just a basis of thinking that can guide you towards the correct conclusion and better performance in the world of betting.
Sunday's Best Betting Tips 03. Predictions and Tips for 30. Value bets of the day 29. Monday's Football Tips 27. Sunday's Best Betting Tips 26. Saturday's Best Betting Tips 25. Please add a reason for your report:Outcomes:Draw - Full return in the event that actually happened.
There are plenty of reasons why bets are voided, for instance if a match was cancelled, a player did not play etc. Please choose correctly, as you can't change the outcome you have picked. Grading results wrong and not reporting it may cause an account suspension or even permanent ban. Betting company used: Pinnacle. This betting pick was also published in Basketball predictions and main StakeHunters betting tips page.
This only happens to be the second victory for Frankfurt in the last six league outings. The club also secured a 3-1 win over PSGFrankfurt overcame a two-game winless run to beat Hertha Berlin 2-1 away from home. The club also secured a 3-1 win over PSG but still finished second in the Champions League group. Allianz Arena was the destination for the recent game between these two teams, and Bayern Munich went as 3-0 winners.
However, the last meeting at the Commerzbank Arena saw the two teams involved in a 2-2 draw. Our betting tips and predictions anticipate a draw. Even though Bayern Munich have a substantial lead in the table, they are up against a difficult record when it comes to away games against Frankfurt.
In the last six away matches against this opponent, Bayern have been able to get only three wins and have drawn the remaining three. Frankfurt have lost just once in the last four home matches.
Bayern Munich have been a top scoring outfit, but there have been instances where the team has struggled. In recent weeks, these struggles have primarily been in the away matches with Bayern Munich dropping five points in the last four away league matches.
Frankfurt have scored a goal per game on an average. There have been several matches with over 2. Yet, this match may be a deviation from the trend. Frankfurt have a positive home record against Bayern Munich with just two of the last six meetings producing more than 2.
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